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SCUBA-L  April 2001, Week 1

SCUBA-L April 2001, Week 1

Subject:

Re: Odds (includes SCUBA)

From:

Gozum_NT at OIT <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Scuba diving discussion list <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 3 Apr 2001 11:11:04 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (84 lines)

Thanks Hugh for the elucidation!

At 12:02 AM 4/3/2001 -0400, Automatic digest processor wrote:
> > >http://www.magma.ca/~ocbc/comparat.html
> > >
> > >COMPARATIVE RISK OF DIFFERENT ACTIVITIES
> > >Estimates of Fatal Risk
> > >
> > >
> > >                                               fatalities
> > >   Activity                                   per million hrs
> > >   --------                                   ---------------
> > >   Skydiving                                     128.71
> > >   General Aviation                               15.58
> > >   On-road Motorcycling                            8.80
> > >   Scuba Diving                                    1.98
> > >   Living (all causes of death)                    1.53
> > >   Swimming                                        1.07
> > >   Snowmobiling                                     .88
> > >   Passenger cars                                   .47
> > >   Water skiing                                     .28
> > >   Bicycling                                        .26
> > >   Flying (scheduled domestic airlines)             .15
> > >   Hunting                                          .08
> > >   Cosmic Radiation from transcontinental flights   .035
> > >   Home Living (active)                             .027
> > >   Traveling in a School Bus                        .022
> > >   Passenger Car Post-collision fire                .017
> > >   Home Living, active & passive (sleeping)         .014
> > >   Residential Fire                                 .003
> > >
> > >
> > >Compiled by Failure Analysis Associates, Inc. (Design News, 10-4-93)
> >
>------------------------------
>Marv writes:
> >
> > Whoops, to correct myself, its strange to say that the risk
> > of dying from living is greater than swimming as you are
> > presumably living in order to swim.
>
>
>I think I understand...and I think I see the cause for the apparent
>confusion - I saw it too.  I think its because the metric of comparison has
>been normalized by time:
>
> > > >                                               fatalities
> > > >   Activity                                   per million hrs
> > > >   --------                                   ---------------
>
>
>
>Case in point, for "just living":
>
> > > >   Living (all causes of death)                    1.53
>
>Since you can only die once, you can work the math backwards and find that
>the number of hours of life per fatality is 653,594...roughly 74.5
>years...which is just about right.
>
>
>FWIW, for the Scuba line:
>
> > > >   Scuba Diving                                    1.98
>
>The metric is higher because the "per event" times for scuba (or skydiving
>:-) are shorter than our entire life...its the smaller denominator that
>makes for the higher incidence rate.
>
>If you mix this all up with the average of ~100 deaths/year and DEMA's
>estimate of 2-3 million divers, it means that all "active" divers are
>throwing 25-16 hours of bottom time into the pool each year.  Doable, but
>probably a bit more "active" than DEMA's definition, which makes for a few
>interesting questions as to who is really doing how much and what.
>
>
>-Hugh


Warm regards,


Marv

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