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SCUBA-L  April 2001, Week 1

SCUBA-L April 2001, Week 1

Subject:

Re: Odds (includes SCUBA)

From:

Gozum_NT at OIT <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Scuba diving discussion list <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 3 Apr 2001 13:02:53 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (115 lines)

Thanks Hugh for the elucidation!  Sorry for a duplicate, the previous
message was sent prematurely.

Probably one of the few collected and reasonably accurate depiction of
fatal risk.  I hope insurance actuarials have this data; SCUBA is up there
with skydiving in premium additions.  Do you know of any other collection
of data for risk of scuba?  I'm trying to compile this data.

The reciprocal of the fpmh, hrs per fatality per person per activity,
initially makes sense but becomes unreal.  On the basis of the data below
living ~ 74.6 years, skydiving ~ < 1 year [~324 days] and residential fire
~ 38,052 years ... so a correction of time/event need be factored in, which
is necessary but not implied in the table.

Assuming normalization, Failure Analysis's then should be intepreted in the
context of data similarly transformed.  Thus, 'Living' is baseline risk and
activities are either above and below it, on a per normalized event, per
normalized person, per hour.  Thus, one could use this table hence:  your
chances of dying while bicycling are nearly twice higher than a domestic
airline flight [ presumed USA.]  [The persons being compared are ideally
normalized too.  If not, then the actual risk needs to factor in age,
physical status, health conditions, sex etc see http://aasim.com/igame.htm.]

It seems the ideal way to use this table is to actually see the formula
used to derive these risks as it seems to be calculated from a host of
factors, with 'living' being a 'mean risk' taken from a 'mean' set of
individuals and their activities.






At 12:02 AM 4/3/2001 -0400, Automatic digest processor wrote:
> > >http://www.magma.ca/~ocbc/comparat.html
> > >
> > >COMPARATIVE RISK OF DIFFERENT ACTIVITIES
> > >Estimates of Fatal Risk
> > >
> > >
> > >                                               fatalities
> > >   Activity                                   per million hrs
> > >   --------                                   ---------------
> > >   Skydiving                                     128.71
> > >   General Aviation                               15.58
> > >   On-road Motorcycling                            8.80
> > >   Scuba Diving                                    1.98
> > >   Living (all causes of death)                    1.53
> > >   Swimming                                        1.07
> > >   Snowmobiling                                     .88
> > >   Passenger cars                                   .47
> > >   Water skiing                                     .28
> > >   Bicycling                                        .26
> > >   Flying (scheduled domestic airlines)             .15
> > >   Hunting                                          .08
> > >   Cosmic Radiation from transcontinental flights   .035
> > >   Home Living (active)                             .027
> > >   Traveling in a School Bus                        .022
> > >   Passenger Car Post-collision fire                .017
> > >   Home Living, active & passive (sleeping)         .014
> > >   Residential Fire                                 .003
> > >
> > >
> > >Compiled by Failure Analysis Associates, Inc. (Design News, 10-4-93)
> >
>------------------------------
>Marv writes:
> >
> > Whoops, to correct myself, its strange to say that the risk
> > of dying from living is greater than swimming as you are
> > presumably living in order to swim.
>
>
>I think I understand...and I think I see the cause for the apparent
>confusion - I saw it too.  I think its because the metric of comparison has
>been normalized by time:
>
> > > >                                               fatalities
> > > >   Activity                                   per million hrs
> > > >   --------                                   ---------------
>
>
>
>Case in point, for "just living":
>
> > > >   Living (all causes of death)                    1.53
>
>Since you can only die once, you can work the math backwards and find that
>the number of hours of life per fatality is 653,594...roughly 74.5
>years...which is just about right.
>
>
>FWIW, for the Scuba line:
>
> > > >   Scuba Diving                                    1.98
>
>The metric is higher because the "per event" times for scuba (or skydiving
>:-) are shorter than our entire life...its the smaller denominator that
>makes for the higher incidence rate.
>
>If you mix this all up with the average of ~100 deaths/year and DEMA's
>estimate of 2-3 million divers, it means that all "active" divers are
>throwing 25-16 hours of bottom time into the pool each year.  Doable, but
>probably a bit more "active" than DEMA's definition, which makes for a few
>interesting questions as to who is really doing how much and what.
>
>
>-Hugh


Warm regards,


Marv

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