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SCUBA-L  October 2005, Week 3

SCUBA-L October 2005, Week 3

Subject:

Re: Hurricane Wilma - Cozumel to get hit

From:

chuck <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Scuba diving discussion list <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 20 Oct 2005 19:54:08 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (81 lines)

Whether it was a high 4 or a low 5 is pretty immaterial is it not?  After
all, a difference of 1MPH is all it takes.  Would the devastation of Katrina
been more complete if the wind were 1MPH stronger?  I doubt it.  THe only
thing that really saved Cozumel during Emily was that it moved quickly.
Wilma is apparently not going to be so kind. The locals have told me that
the gummint has warned them to expect more than 24 hours of hurricane force
winds starting most any time now. 

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Scuba diving discussion list 
> [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Ron Lee
> Sent: Thursday, October 20, 2005 7:38 PM
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: Hurricane Wilma - Cozumel to get hit
> 
> At 03:53 PM 10/20/2005, you wrote:
> >Anemometer at Punta Sur recorded 190MPH steady before it blew away.
> 
> Perhaps, but that is not consistent with other info:
> 
> 
> ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
> TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
> HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
> NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
> 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005
> 
> AIR FORCE RECON REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 
> 134 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0018Z.  NORMALLY THIS 
> WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 120 KT.  
> HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY AND 
> IS NOW UP TO 955 MB.
> THEREFORE IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INTENSITY IS JUST A LITTLE 
> LOWER AT THIS TIME...115 KT.  THIS IS STILL CATEGORY FOUR 
> STRENGTH...AND EMILY REMAINS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE.  RADAR 
> IMAGERY FROM CANCUN SHOWS THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE  
> FLUCTUATING...BUT WITH NO DEFINITIVE INDICATIONS OF AN 
> EYEWALL REPLACEMENT.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY 
> BEFORE LANDFALL IN A FEW HOURS.  A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER 
> THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY HAVE BEEN IMPARTING SOME 
> SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT 
> THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN WITHIN 
> 12-24 HOURS....CREATING AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 
> THAT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.  
> THEREFORE...ONCE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE 
> SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
> RE-INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED.  JUST HOW MUCH EMILY 
> RESTRENGTHENS IS PARTLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT THAT THE 
> INNER CORE IS DISRUPTED AFTER PASSING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN.
> 
> INITIAL MOTION...295/16...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THE 
> TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ALSO BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  THE 
> GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY 
> CAUSE A SLIGHT EROSION IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE 
> NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT THE RIDGE IS 
> LIKELY TO RESTRENGTHEN THEREAFTER.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE 
> DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE 
> SOUTH FOR THIS PACKAGE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE 
> SOUTHERNMOST TRACK.  INTERESTINGLY...THAT MODEL HAS HAD THE 
> LOWEST 72 HR TRACK ERROR OF ALL THE GUIDANCE FOR EMILY...THUS 
> FAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE 
> AND IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS.
> 
> A HURRICANE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF 
> THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN 
> TEXAS COAST...EARLY ON MONDAY.
> 
> FORECASTER PASCH
> 
> FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
> 
> INITIAL      18/0300Z 19.9N  86.5W   115 KT
>   12HR VT     18/1200Z 21.0N  88.9W    90 KT...INLAND
>   24HR VT     19/0000Z 22.3N  91.7W    95 KT
>   36HR VT     19/1200Z 23.3N  94.4W   100 KT
>   48HR VT     20/0000Z 24.1N  96.8W   105 KT
>   72HR VT     21/0000Z 25.0N 102.0W    30 KT...INLAND
>   96HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
> 
> 

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