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AUXLANG  November 1998, Week 2

AUXLANG November 1998, Week 2

Subject:

How many Esp-ists? (was: What IAL to Learn?)

From:

Chris Burd <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

International Auxiliary Languages <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 11 Nov 1998 16:41:11 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (70 lines)

At 03:05 AM 09 11 98 -0400, Yves Bellefeuille wrote:
 
>Chris Burd <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
>>  Another linguist, a Finnish fellow, has much more modest estimates:
>>
>> 1 000  are native speakers
>>10 000  are expert speakers with native-like ability
>> 100 000  are competant users
>>   1 000 000  have some passive knowledge
>> 10 000 000  know something about it
>
>The "Finnish follow" is Jouko Lindstedt, who is himself an active
>Esperantist, so perhaps that disqualifies him in some people's
>opinion...
>
>His numbers appear at http://www.rano.demon.co.uk/nombro.html. I must
>disagree with his estimate that 10 000 people can speak Esperanto
>fluently (not "with native-like ability"), since each year the
>week-long World Esperanto Congress has 2 000-3 000 participants, and
>it's out of the question that as many as one fourth of the fluent
>speakers have the inclination, or the resources, to travel abroad to
>participate in a week-long conference.
 
Kjell posted an Ia translation of fascinating paper of Lindstedt's in INTERLNG, on creolisation in Esperanto. Here he defines the 10 000 figure a little more precisely:
 
"10 000 [esperantistas] parla le lingua tanto fluentemente que
su cognoscentia lingual es plus o minus comparabile al intuition de un
parlator native."
 
I suppose it depends on how you define "fluent". To me it means you're able to speak on full range of subjects without long pauses or 'breakdowns', with a reasonably well-selected vocabulary and an avoidance of serious grammatical errors. That's more or less what I understand the US Foreign Service Level 3 standard to mean.
 
I've never attended an Eo congress of course (or even knowingly met an Esperantist, although I recently saw a car with an Esperanto windshield decal in my neighbourhood), but I imagine there's a mixed of language levels, from "bonan-tagon" Esperantists (say Foreign Service Level 1 or 2) to expert speakers from Lindstedt's 10 000 (say Foreign Service Level 4 +, though I believe the FS ratings reserve LEvel 5 for native speakers). So it's not that incredible.
 
The size of the World Congresses, by the way, is one of the data that to me suggests a lower rather than a higher figure for Esperantists. I believe that some of the early 20th century congresses had over a 1000 participents, when the movement had only 50 or 100 thousand members, according to Esperantist sources. Nowadays, with increased leisure time, higher incomes, and better transportation, I'd expect the proportion of E-ists able to attend to increase. So the current level of 3000-5000 participents seems to indicate a total population of no more than few hundred thousand.
 
As a comparison, recent Interlingua congresses have attracted 50-plus participents. I haven't heard a lot of figures on the number of active Interlinguists. Some of the Esperanto-oriented interlinguistic research claimed a total of 400 in the mid-eighties, but that seems too low to me. Let's say 1000-2000. That would be a ratio of 20-40 active Interlinguists for every attendee. Applying the same ratio to Esperanto would predict a total active population of 60,000-200,000. Since Eo has a wider geographic dispersion than Ia (making it likely that a smaller proportion of Eo attend congresses), let's arbitrarily double the figure: 120,000-400,000.
 
I wouldn't take any of these figures too seriously; I'm just playing around with some scraps of data. The problem is, *none* of the basic data I've seen suggests anything like a million or more "real" Esperantists, however we might define "real".
 
>Nobody really knows how many people speak Esperanto; the Esperantists
>themselves don't know. Jouko's interest is Esperanto as a first
>language, and I feel that his estimate of 1 000 native speakers is in
>the right ball-park, i.e. it could be 500 or it could be 5 000, but it's
>certainly not as few as 20 or as many as 100 000.
 
One thing I like about his figures is that they are so obviously schematic. His 100 000 fluent E-ists might in reality be 50 000 or 500 000, but not 10 000 or 1m. That's an honest reflection of our state of knowledge on the issue.
 
>Prof. Culbert's numbers have the advantage that he attempted to
>estimate how many people speak all languages, not just Esperanto. If his
>estimate for English or Hungarian seems reasonable, then the estimate
>for Esperanto is probably as valid as any other.
 
It's easier to count speakers of national languages, since governments tend to do the work for you. And with minority ethnic languages you at least know where to look: speakers tend to clump together geographically; almost everyone has learnt the language from their parents, and so; they may have typical family or given names, etc. None of this is true of Esperanto. A high-school student in Kuala Lumpur may become an excellent Esperantist via self-study and correspondence, without her family even knowing it. Tracking down people like that - unorganised, barely connected Esperantists - is a real challenge. Yet if Culbert's 1.6m is correct, they must form the vast majority of the community.
 
I don't know how Culbert arrived at his figure, but he certainly did not undertake a comprehensive multinational survey involving tens of thousands of subjects, which is what you'd need to settle the matter. Who'd have the money? He seems to have conducted a lot of spot interviews, extrapolating his data based on what seemed to him to be reasonable assumptions. If he is wrong (as I believe he is) I'm sure it's the honest mistake of a compete8nt scholar.
 
I'm reminded of a book I browsed through a few months ago, a collection of academic essays concerning the number of inhabitants of Precolumbian America. The range of estimates among the authors were Esperantesque: something like 20m to 200m. Initially I thought, Well, these guys have obvious allowed their ideological biases to infect their work. But reading the essays and transcripts of a colloquium, I realised that they seemed to respect each others' work and simply faced problems interpreting and extrapolating the scanty evidence available.
 
>> As for my own opinion, I'm on record (in the Toronto Globe and Mail)
>> as endoring a figure of 500,000-2,000,000, which I got from Umberto
>> Eco's book.
>
>I'm afraid I missed this. Can you give me the precise reference from the
>Globe and Mail?
 
Not precisely, but it was around April 1997 in the "Collected Wisdom" section, which ran on Wednesdays. "Collected Wisdom" was a feature in which readers answered posed by other readers. Some fathead claimed that Klingon had more speakers than Esperanto, and I thought I'd set him right.
 
Chris Burd

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January 2003, Week 1
December 2002, Week 5
December 2002, Week 4
December 2002, Week 3
December 2002, Week 2
December 2002, Week 1
November 2002, Week 4
November 2002, Week 3
November 2002, Week 2
November 2002, Week 1
October 2002, Week 5
October 2002, Week 4
October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
September 2002, Week 5
September 2002, Week 4
September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
September 2002, Week 1
August 2002, Week 5
August 2002, Week 4
August 2002, Week 3
August 2002, Week 2
August 2002, Week 1
July 2002, Week 5
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July 2002, Week 3
July 2002, Week 2
July 2002, Week 1
June 2002, Week 5
June 2002, Week 4
June 2002, Week 3
June 2002, Week 2
June 2002, Week 1
May 2002, Week 5
May 2002, Week 4
May 2002, Week 3
May 2002, Week 2
May 2002, Week 1
April 2002, Week 5
April 2002, Week 4
April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
December 2001, Week 5
December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
December 2001, Week 2
December 2001, Week 1
November 2001, Week 5
November 2001, Week 4
November 2001, Week 3
November 2001, Week 2
November 2001, Week 1
October 2001, Week 5
October 2001, Week 4
October 2001, Week 3
October 2001, Week 2
October 2001, Week 1
September 2001, Week 5
September 2001, Week 4
September 2001, Week 3
September 2001, Week 2
September 2001, Week 1
August 2001, Week 5
August 2001, Week 4
August 2001, Week 3
August 2001, Week 2
August 2001, Week 1
July 2001, Week 5
July 2001, Week 4
July 2001, Week 3
July 2001, Week 2
July 2001, Week 1
June 2001, Week 5
June 2001, Week 4
June 2001, Week 3
June 2001, Week 2
June 2001, Week 1
May 2001, Week 5
May 2001, Week 4
May 2001, Week 3
May 2001, Week 2
May 2001, Week 1
April 2001, Week 5
April 2001, Week 4
April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
March 2001, Week 4
March 2001, Week 3
March 2001, Week 2
March 2001, Week 1
February 2001, Week 4
February 2001, Week 3
February 2001, Week 2
February 2001, Week 1
January 2001, Week 5
January 2001, Week 4
January 2001, Week 3
January 2001, Week 2
January 2001, Week 1
December 2000, Week 5
December 2000, Week 4
December 2000, Week 3
December 2000, Week 2
December 2000, Week 1
November 2000, Week 5
November 2000, Week 4
November 2000, Week 3
November 2000, Week 2
November 2000, Week 1
October 2000, Week 5
October 2000, Week 4
October 2000, Week 3
October 2000, Week 2
October 2000, Week 1
September 2000, Week 5
September 2000, Week 4
September 2000, Week 3
September 2000, Week 2
September 2000, Week 1
August 2000, Week 5
August 2000, Week 4
August 2000, Week 3
August 2000, Week 2
August 2000, Week 1
July 2000, Week 5
July 2000, Week 4
July 2000, Week 3
July 2000, Week 2
July 2000, Week 1
June 2000, Week 5
June 2000, Week 4
June 2000, Week 3
June 2000, Week 2
June 2000, Week 1
May 2000, Week 5
May 2000, Week 4
May 2000, Week 3
May 2000, Week 2
May 2000, Week 1
April 2000, Week 5
April 2000, Week 4
April 2000, Week 3
April 2000, Week 2
April 2000, Week 1
March 2000, Week 5
March 2000, Week 4
March 2000, Week 3
March 2000, Week 2
March 2000, Week 1
February 2000, Week 5
February 2000, Week 4
February 2000, Week 3
February 2000, Week 2
February 2000, Week 1
January 2000, Week 5
January 2000, Week 4
January 2000, Week 3
January 2000, Week 2
January 2000, Week 1
December 1999, Week 5
December 1999, Week 4
December 1999, Week 3
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November 1999, Week 4
November 1999, Week 3
November 1999, Week 2
November 1999, Week 1
October 1999, Week 5
October 1999, Week 4
October 1999, Week 3
October 1999, Week 2
October 1999, Week 1
September 1999, Week 5
September 1999, Week 4
September 1999, Week 3
September 1999, Week 2
September 1999, Week 1
August 1999, Week 5
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August 1999, Week 3
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August 1999, Week 1
July 1999, Week 5
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July 1999, Week 3
July 1999, Week 2
July 1999, Week 1
June 1999, Week 5
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May 1999, Week 5
May 1999, Week 4
May 1999, Week 3
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May 1999, Week 1
April 1999, Week 5
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April 1999, Week 3
April 1999, Week 2
April 1999, Week 1
March 1999, Week 5
March 1999, Week 4
March 1999, Week 3
March 1999, Week 2
March 1999, Week 1
February 1999, Week 5
February 1999, Week 4
February 1999, Week 3
February 1999, Week 2
February 1999, Week 1
January 1999, Week 5
January 1999, Week 4
January 1999, Week 3
January 1999, Week 2
January 1999, Week 1
December 1998, Week 5
December 1998, Week 4
December 1998, Week 3
December 1998, Week 2
December 1998, Week 1
November 1998, Week 5
November 1998, Week 4
November 1998, Week 3
November 1998, Week 2
November 1998, Week 1
October 1998, Week 5
October 1998, Week 4
October 1998, Week 3
October 1998, Week 2
October 1998, Week 1
September 1998, Week 5
September 1998, Week 4
September 1998, Week 3
September 1998, Week 2
September 1998, Week 1
August 1998, Week 4
August 1998, Week 3
August 1998, Week 2
August 1998, Week 1
July 1998, Week 5
July 1998, Week 4
July 1998, Week 3
July 1998, Week 2
July 1998, Week 1
June 1998, Week 5
June 1998, Week 4
June 1998, Week 3
June 1998, Week 2
June 1998, Week 1
May 1998, Week 5
May 1998, Week 4
May 1998, Week 3
May 1998, Week 2
May 1998, Week 1
April 1998, Week 5
April 1998, Week 4
April 1998, Week 3
April 1998, Week 2
April 1998, Week 1
March 1998, Week 5
March 1998, Week 4
March 1998, Week 3
March 1998, Week 2
March 1998, Week 1
February 1998, Week 5
February 1998, Week 4
February 1998, Week 3
February 1998, Week 2
February 1998, Week 1
January 1998, Week 5
January 1998, Week 4
January 1998, Week 3
January 1998, Week 2
January 1998, Week 1
December 1997, Week 5
December 1997, Week 4
December 1997, Week 3
December 1997, Week 2
December 1997, Week 1
November 1997, Week 5
November 1997, Week 4
November 1997, Week 3
November 1997, Week 2
November 1997, Week 1
October 1997, Week 5
October 1997, Week 4
October 1997, Week 3
October 1997, Week 2
October 1997, Week 1
September 1997, Week 5
September 1997, Week 4
September 1997, Week 3
September 1997, Week 2
September 1997, Week 1
August 1997, Week 5
August 1997, Week 4
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August 1997, Week 1
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July 1997, Week 3
July 1997, Week 2
July 1997, Week 1
June 1997, Week 5
June 1997, Week 4
June 1997, Week 3
June 1997, Week 2
June 1997, Week 1
May 1997, Week 5
May 1997, Week 4
May 1997, Week 3
May 1997, Week 2
May 1997, Week 1
April 1997, Week 5
April 1997, Week 4
April 1997, Week 3
April 1997, Week 2
April 1997, Week 1
March 1997, Week 5
March 1997, Week 4
March 1997, Week 3
March 1997, Week 2
March 1997, Week 1
February 1997, Week 5
February 1997, Week 4
February 1997, Week 3
February 1997, Week 2
February 1997, Week 1

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