On Fri, 31 Aug 2001 12:45:28 +0000, James Chandler <[log in to unmask]>

>I dont share Carlevaros pessimism, but i suppose it depends what you mean
>disappear.  Has Volapuk disappeared?  It still has an active band of
>enthusiasts, but no-one any longer seems to consider it a candidate for a
>future IAL, as if it has been definitively superseded by later languages.
>I do expect that the same thing will one day happen to Esp, as it is slowly
>eclipsed over the decades by superior languages.  However i think it will
>take longer than 44 more years for it to disappear as Volapuk has
>disappeared.  Perhaps 2100 or even 2150 would be better estimates (assuming
>humanity can make it that far...).

I think the critical moment in the death of an IAL is when no-one worth
taking seriously still takes it seriously as an IAL. Tazio Carlevaro, for
example, appears to have stopped taking Eo seriously as possible solution
to problems of international communication, though he will no doubt remain
active in the Eo movement. Similarly, he's been involved in Interlingua,
but I don't think he takes it seriously as an IAL in any real sense (I
don't *know* his views, mind you).