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Not at all.
As a benchmark, as exact date might inform us as to whether progress is being made.
As a sound bite, such a date helps put the dialog onto the side advocating gun control. 
In a big and informed group as ours, it is a germ of an idea that we can mold into something useful.

Jb0


> On Feb 25, 2018, at 9:21 PM, Matthew Wilkinson <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> 
> Assuming your definition of mass school shooting, a poisson distribution, and Wikipedia's list of school shootings (0.3 per per year over the past 20 years  with >= 10 deaths), there is a 95% chance that there will be a mass school shooting within the next 10 years.
> 
> Wait, was that a rhetorical question??
> 
> MW
> 
> 
> On Sunday, February 25, 2018, 5:33:31 PM CST, Julian Orenstein <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> 
> 
> I’m not a numbers guy, so I could use a little statistical help:
> 
> What is the nearest date, with 95% probability, by which the next mass school shooting (arbitrarily >10) occurs?
> 
> Julian Orenstein
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