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Not to be morbid, but ...

1.  Why would you base it on >10 deaths? I would say any with >2 deaths would qualify as “mass” in my book, assuming that with 3 deaths there are also multiple injuries.

2.  20 years seems like a long reference window given how steep the increase has been, why not make the reference time period something like the last three years?

What do you get then?

Julie

Sent from my phone, please forgive brevity and typos.

> On Feb 26, 2018, at 3:24 AM, Matthew Wilkinson <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
> Assuming your definition of mass school shooting, a poisson distribution, and Wikipedia's list of school shootings (0.3 per per year over the past 20 years  with >= 10 deaths), there is a 95% chance that there will be a mass school shooting within the next 10 years.
> Wait, was that a rhetorical question??
> MW
>
>    On Sunday, February 25, 2018, 5:33:31 PM CST, Julian Orenstein <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
> I’m not a numbers guy, so I could use a little statistical help:
>
> What is the nearest date, with 95% probability, by which the next mass school shooting (arbitrarily >10) occurs?
>
> Julian Orenstein
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